The mood of the elected US President Joe Biden to return the country to the list of participants in the agreement on the Iranian nuclear program of the Western countries, China, Russia and Iran, of course, deserves a positive assessment, but to achieve this goal, the American leader will have to overcome many obstacles on different sides of the ocean.
Experts interviewed by the Russian service of the Voice of America are inclined to this conclusion.
Recall that Joe Biden announced his intention as soon as possible to start work on returning the United States to the framework of the said agreement in an interview with the New York Times. However, he has repeatedly expressed himself in the same spirit before.
According to him, the future administration plans, in cooperation with allies and partners, to participate in negotiations and formulate additional agreements that would develop and extend the restrictions on the Iranian nuclear program, as well as concern the republic’s missile program.
As Biden noted, the agreement that controls Tehran’s nuclear development is the most effective instrument for “ensuring stability in the region.” Otherwise, according to the president-elect, one will have to fear that Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and other countries will want to have nuclear weapons.
Vladimir Sazhin: “It will be extremely difficult for Biden to break the resistance not only in Washington, but also in Tehran”
The Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (JCPOA) is a very important document not only for limiting Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but also for preserving the nuclear nonproliferation regime, said Professor Vladimir Sazhin, senior researcher at the Center for Near and Middle East Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies. In his opinion, the US withdrawal from the “nuclear deal” was a rash move by Donald Trump.
“Of course, the fact that the United States withdrew from the agreement in May 2018, and then imposed much tougher sanctions against Iran compared to those that were before, seriously aggravated the situation,” he added in an interview with Voice of America. “This prompted Tehran to abandon many of the provisions of the JSDP and start anew developing its nuclear program.”
Therefore, President-elect Joe Biden, as it seems to the professor, correctly assesses the tasks of the United States in solving the problem and makes statements in the right way: “This is very positive. True, Biden, no doubt, will face enormous difficulties here. If only because Donald Trump did everything possible to limit the possibilities of the new president. It looks like he expects to return to the White House and continue his anti-Iranian policy. “
In addition, Iran also has powerful forces that do not want Tehran to fulfill the requirements of the JDPP, Vladimir Sazhin said. “Moreover, in June 2021 there will be presidential elections in Iran,” said the orientalist. – The current president Rouhani and his reform team will almost certainly leave. Accordingly, all branches of government will pass into the hands of Iranian conservatives, many of whom are ardent opponents of the FDP. “
Thus, it will be extremely difficult for Biden to break the resistance not only in Washington, but also in Tehran, the professor concluded.
Meanwhile, according to media reports, the Iranian Council of Guardians of the Constitution approved a bill proposed by the country’s parliament on the intensification of nuclear activities. In accordance with the document, Tehran may refuse inspections by the IAEA.
Andrey Kortunov: “Attempts to return to the Iranian nuclear deal may encounter rather stiff opposition in Congress”
In turn, Andrei Kortunov, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council, also noted that Biden had indeed said more than once that he considered the US withdrawal from the multilateral agreement on the Iranian nuclear program to be wrong and that he would like to return the country to the JCPOA. But here, in his opinion, there are many nuances.
“For example, the Iranian side claims that the United States should somehow compensate Tehran for the costs that it incurred because of the tough sanctions imposed by the White House against Iran,” the source of the Voice of America stated. “I strongly doubt the Biden administration will be prepared for such compensation.”
In addition, Andrei Kortunov foresees that attempts to return to the Iranian nuclear deal may encounter rather stiff opposition in Congress. “A conflict between the executive and the legislature is quite possible here,” he stressed. – In addition, the Biden administration, albeit not in such a harsh form as the Trump administration, will still raise the issue of the so-called regional behavior of the Islamic Republic of Iran. And this can also prevent the US from returning to the “nuclear deal”. “
At the same time, some changes in this direction should take place, and they will create, albeit limited, but still opportunities for relative progress, including in the context of the dialogue between Moscow and Washington, concluded the Director General of the Russian Council on International Affairs.